(Miles Franklin Media) – The evolving conflict between the United States and Iran may be exposing deeper cracks in the global financial system, according to New York Times bestselling author and macro strategist James Rickards.

Speaking on The Real Story with Michelle Makori, Rickards said the recently announced ceasefire masks significant disagreements between the two sides.

“Trump has a plan, Iran has a plan. They don’t match, they don’t sync up at all,” Rickards told Michelle Makori, adding that “the two sides haven’t agreed on anything except maybe to keep talking.”

Despite claims of military success from U.S. officials, Rickards pushed back on the narrative, arguing that Iran’s definition of victory differs fundamentally from that of the U.S. “For [Iran], that’s victory… the regime is still in place… and they still have oil revenues,” he said.

Rickards also pointed to shifting control over critical energy routes, noting that Iran’s reported plan to charge tolls on oil shipments signals leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran wants to get paid in crypto… that means Iran’s in charge of the Straits,” he said.

Watch the video above for Rickards’ take and timeline around U.S. military escalation risks and U.S. troop buildup.

Beyond geopolitics, Rickards warned of mounting financial risks already underway.

“There’s actually a global dollar shortage and the beginnings of a global dollar liquidity crisis,” he said, adding that the situation could lead to broader economic fallout. “We could be looking, at best, at a recession and perhaps something much worse.”

He emphasized that these pressures predate the conflict but may now intensify. “There’s a lot of trouble in the global monetary system… the war makes it worse,” Rickards said, pointing to a confluence of underlying stresses already in motion.

Rickards noted that central banks are increasingly shifting reserves toward gold. There has also been selling of U.S. Treasuries in order to raise liquidity and support domestic financial systems. He cited structural fragilities tied to supply shocks, particularly in energy markets, warning that disruptions to oil and natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz could amplify inflationary pressures while simultaneously weakening growth.

“The damage has already been done,” Rickards said, arguing that even a resolution in the conflict would not immediately reverse the economic fallout. In his view, the overlap of geopolitical instability, tightening liquidity, and supply-driven inflation creates a more precarious backdrop than markets currently reflect, increasing the risk of a deeper global downturn.

When Makori asked: “Wouldn’t this conflict accelerate other countries saying I’d rather have gold than dollars?” Rickards agreed: “I think that’s absolutely right.”

Against that backdrop, Rickards maintained a bullish outlook on gold, reiterating his previous year-end forecast. “$10,000 is still a realistic estimate,” he said.

While Rickards does not see the U.S. dollar losing its dominant role in the near term, he said structural stress in the system is building and could be amplified by ongoing geopolitical instability.

To get Rickards’ thoughts on why a recession may already be inevitable, watch the video above.